Quantification of Uncertainty
in Recovery Efficiency Predictions: Lessons
Learned from 250 Mature Carbonate Fields
By Rod Sloan and S. Qing Sun
The
most prominent aspects of carbonate reservoirs
are their heterogeneity, variable wettability
and dual pore network, which collectively
contribute to complex fluid flow and
uncertainty in reservoir performance
and recovery efficiency predictions.
A review of ultimate recovery efficiency
in 250 mature carbonate fields from around
the world provides constraints for quantifying
uncertainty in recovery efficiency predictions.
Key determinants of ultimate recovery
are fluid type/viscosity, pore network,
reservoir geometry, drive mechanism and
wettability. Development strategies and
reservoir management techniques play
crucial roles in maximizing expected
ultimate recoveries for given reservoir/fluid
parameters. Six main fluid type/carbonate
reservoir classes, with characteristic
ultimate recovery distributions and controls
are: (1) heavy and viscous oil reservoirs,
in which RF is controlled by fluid viscosity
variations, field size and application
of horizontal drilling, (2) karstic/fractured
macroporous oil reservoirs, in which
RF is controlled by matrix permeability
and drive mechanism, (3) fractured microporous
oil reservoirs, in which RF is controlled
by fracture density and wettability,
(4) conventional oil reservoirs, in which
RF is controlled by reservoir quality/heterogeneity
and mobility ratio, (5) organic buildup
oil reservoirs, in which RF is controlled
by nature and size of organic buildups
and diagenetic modifications; and (6)
gas/condensate reservoirs, in which RF
is controlled by aquifer encroachment
and condensate drop-out. Examination
of actual case histories reduces uncertainty
in predevelopment recovery efficiency
predictions and shows what is possible
in new or old fields.
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